Apple's Risk Management Plan For iPhone Launch Flawed

The recent launch of the iPhone 3G was has been met with technical "oopsies" that could very easily be addressed by better risk management. Now, be prepared, because I'm about to "go all PMP on your buttocks".

Risk Management, as defined in PMI's PMBOK Guide (Risk Management Planning - Page 237). Risk Management Planning is process group number 11, under this group you have these 6 key areas:

11.1 - Risk Management Planning (Yeah I know it's a repeat of the main heading, I didn't write this stuff, I'm just trying to memorize it right now)
11.2 - Risk Identification
11.3 - Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 - Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 - Risk Response Planning
11.6 - Risk Monitoring and Controlling

The basic idea here is that if you work dilligently to identify your potential risks you can plan more appropriately on how to monitor and control those risks. So where did Apple screw up on their Risk Management Plan for the launch of the new iPhone?

They did not adequately identify network outages as a potential risk for their product deployment. Had they identified this as a potential risk, they would have had a more effective plan for mitigating that risk. So how does one actually identify potential risks in a project? What is a real-world application to this whole "Risk Identification" methodology?

Now, PMBOK doesn't really give you a "how-to" so much as it does a "what for". According to the PMBOK, the followin are the Inputs, Tools&Techniques, and Outputs (ITTO's) for the Risk Identification process:

Inputs: (11.2.1)
- Enterprise environmental factors (11.2.1.1)
- Organizational process assets (11.2.1.2)
- Project Scope Statement (11.2.1.3)
- Risk Management Plan (11.2.1.4)
- Project Management Plan (11.2.1.5)

Tools and Techniques (11.2.2)
- Documentation reviews (11.2.2.1)
- Information gathering techniques (11.2.2.2)
- Checklist analysis (11.2.2.3)
- Assumptions analysis (11.2.2.4)
- Diagramming techniques (11.2.2.5)

Outputs (11.2.3)
- Risk register (11.2.3.1)

So what does all of this mean in the real world? I think the key factor here, in PMI terms, that caused the issues with activating the new iPhones was in 11.2.2.3 and 11.2.2.4 respectively. That is there was a breakdown in the checklist analysis and assumption analysis.

The breakdown in the checklist analysis, as I see it, is that the provider's network capacity was checked off as being sufficient yet they must not have done a very thorough job of verifying that checlist item.

The breakdown in the assumpltions analysis is obvious. They assumed that the provider's network would be capable of handling the large number of concurrent activation requests.

Now, why am I picking on Apple and the iPhone? I'm not really. This whole post serves two purposes.

1) I get to use a real-world example and apply pieces of the Project Risk Management knowledge area of the PMBOK guide. This is actually helping me to better understand the knowledge area overall, as I prepare for my PMP.

2) I get to share that practical application with the world (well, at least the 3 of you who are reading this post) and maybe do something to spark a little conversation about project risk management.

So that's my thoughts. What do you think?