A business is at the mercy of the market. The best the business can do is try to make the lead-time between the order and the ability to deliver as short as possible. When the aggregate time for manufacturing and delivery is greater than the time the customer requires, there is no choice but to forecast. Still the most reliable demand pattern is customer orders. How can these two diverse situations be reconciled?
DAY 1
DAY 2
Introduction: Objectives for Demand Management and Forecasting
Forecasts can be used for a number of different things. The forecasting horizon and the discreteness of the data should be lined up with these objectives. Many forecasting systems are implemented without .giving enough thought to this issue. The participants will be led through an analysis of how to determine the appropriate objectives for their company.
The second issue is, independent demand is only part of the total demand placed on manufacturing facilities. Further, the different types of demand need to be blended together for it to effectively drive production scheduling. Installation of ERP and MRP II systems require this data be blended automatically. This and other implications of automating business information are discussed.
A good part of the course is devoted to forecasting. The challenge of forecasting is, unless it is accurate enough, the information is useless. One technique for improving accuracy is to forecast at a higher level. The trade-offs of forecasting more or less detail is discussed in light of the objectives.
Many things are done to get better projections on what product is needed when and where. Vendor Managed Inventory, EDI, Point of Sale information are just a few. The various sources of information are additional pieces of information that are variations on market intelligence. The various options, pros and cons are discussed to help you decide how much market intelligence you need and can afford.
There is no better picture of independent demand that real customer orders. The problem is, customers do not generally give you sufficient lead time to respond to their orders. We solve that problem by carrying inventory. Building inventory ahead of orders requires forecasts. The details of when customer orders should be used and not are discussed so that you can maximize the effectiveness of this situation.
Customer Service Strategies: Make-to-stock; Make-to-Assemble; and Make-to-Order help you manage customer expectations. Find out how customer orders are used differently for each strategy. It will be illustrated when to pick which strategy and how to systematically apply them with thesystems.
Internal demand can make up anywhere from a small part to a major part of the total demand. Regardless, it is usually the last demand element considered. Should this information be derived from the schedule of the upstream business or be forecasted?
Dependent demand can be local or overseas. Replenishment lot quantities can be large and have considerable lead-times. The special considerations of this type of demand are explored.
Demand Management is a process. This process will be clearly laid out so that it can be automated. All aspects of demand must be considered as part of the process. The key question of how to view the disjointed pieces of data as an organized flow of information will be described.
The methodology of using historical data to project the future is described. Key to this discussion is picking understanding the different methods available and the relationship between the complexity of the method to the accuracy of the results.
The results are only as good as the data that is used. Cleaning up the data anomalies is a critical step to insuring the quality of the process. The techniques for identifying and cleaning up these anomalies will be described.
History can not always predict the future. Other factors besides history could be used that are only indirectly related to product sales. Factors could be weather, economic conditions, industry related information, etc. The conditions for using extrinsic factors and which ones should be used will be described.
There is not always enough capacity for all demand within an given period. If the imbalance can be reliably predicted then inventory can be built ahead. Otherwise, choices have to be made. Demand can be prioritized by customer, product or demand type. This discussion will understand the trade-off that need to be made to make the choice of who gets what when.
The original process will be built on to complete it. The process will now to described in detail, laying out all the information flow components and connections. It will be further described in terms of Strategic, Tactical and Operational Planning.
Demand gets compressed into shorter periods of time. These are distortions of time and space. Learn how to deal with these distortions so they don't create havoc to your supply situation.
Exports, Exchanges, Swaps and Tolls presents special problems because of greater risk and larger quantities required in a shorter period of time. This section is particularly useful for companies that already operate on a global basis or plan to expand their market.