Thread: RPR,BHB Ratings and lb's in handicaps

Can anyone tell me how many pounds(weight) does a point in the RPR ratings and the BHB ratings as a rule of thumb or is it different for types of race/goings when trying to work out the best handicapped horse in a race.

Does anyone have an answer to this.

Apologies Big Mazey, but I'm not quite sure I understand the question.

Can anyone tell me how many pounds(weight) does a point in the RPR ratings and the BHB ratings as a rule of thumb or is it different for types of race/goings when trying to work out the best handicapped horse in a race.

Generally, a 'marker' horse is found and the weights are based around it. What do you mean when you say 'the best handicapped horse' ?

When you are looking for a horse that hasn't got as much wieght as it should.

e.g.

Horse A RPR=120 WEIGHT 11-3
Horse B RPR=120 WEIGHT 11-3
Horse C RPR=119 WEIGHT 11-0
Horse D RPR=118 WEIGHT 10-13
Horse E RPR=116 WEIGHT 10-12
Horse F RPR=112 WEIGHT 10-4


IS HORSE C BETTER IN AT THE WEIGHTS BASED ON ITS RPR?
OR IS ANOTHER HORSE BETTER IN WITH THE WEIGHTS

IS 1 POINT IN THE RPR EQUIVALENT TO 1LB, 2LB OR 3LB OR 4LB ETC.

Ah right, I see what you mean. The RP find a 'marker' horse to start with. This is a consistent sort who runs as expected. Next, they set the weight per length scale. The ratings are compiled in comparison to the 'marker'. The RP ratings use the same scale as the BHB handicappers - 0-140 on the flat and 0-175 in NH racing. Each point on the scale represents 1lb of weight. The difference between the RP and the OR is that the RP do not work off a current handicap 'mark'. The handicappers must use this mark (the OR) to assess the horses ability judging by past results whereas the RP, using their variables can treat the race as a 'cold' handicap (a one off event) to create the rating. Note that the RP update the rating at the overnight stage when there is a going guide. In your example, Horse C would be treated well in the weight, assuming the RP have called it right.

EDIT: As Mat points out, while C is treated well, the horse treated the best is F.

In the above example isn't Horse F the best in terms of weights/ratings? An RPR of 112 is 8lbs below the top rated yet the horse is carrying 13lbs less. It's effectively 5lbs well in at that weight, if the RPR ratings are any good.

Horse C is 2lbs to the good (carrying 3lb less for a 1 drop in RPR) as is Horse D while Horse E is 1lb to the good.

Originally Posted by mathare

In the above example isn't Horse F the best in terms of weights/ratings? An RPR of 112 is 8lbs below the top rated yet the horse is carrying 13lbs less. It's effectively 5lbs well in at that weight, if the RPR ratings are any good.

Horse C is 2lbs to the good (carrying 3lb less for a 1 drop in RPR) as is Horse D while Horse E is 1lb to the good.

That's right Mat. As you say, this is assuming that the RP have called it right. Generally, when looking at the RP ratings, I try to spot a horse up at the top of the RPR, yet down in the weights. Obviously blindly backing these sorts is not advised and other variables must be considered.

Examples like that one show two different views of the same horse. The official handicapper sets the weight the nag carries and the RP handicapper provides an independent rating. Who do you trust?

Is the OR right and the horse is 13lbs worse than the top rated? Or is the RPR right and the horse is only 8lbs worse?

These are the sorts of questions you need to ask yourself when looking at handicaps.

But weight can affect different horses in different ways. And the effects of weight vary across different goings and distances, as well as race types. Horses aren't all equally strong (and why should they be) so some may cope better with an extra stone than others. Generally speaking the weight matters more in chases (in my opinion) as the horse has to not only saddle the weight during the race but get it up and over the fences too.

Originally Posted by mathare

Generally speaking the weight matters more in chases (in my opinion) as the horse has to not only saddle the weight during the race but get it up and over the fences too.

I'd concur with this Mat. In my handicap thread where I try spot horses carrying too little weight, the Chases have shown the most profit and the highest SR - next comes the hurdles. The AW has a low SR, and this is probably a combination of the flat surface and lower quality races. I'm only starting on the flat (turf) so I've no data for that yet.

Thanks WB and Mathare. You have given some great advice and i will try and keep it all in mind when making selections in handicaps in future.

Taking account of what was said purely on RPR and wieghts the Grand National 1 2 3 will be

Le Duc
Joe's Edge
Mckelvey

hi guys long time no post...
I find the RPR a very usefull tool in handicaps using a little +7 formula that i have.

If a horse has ran +7 or more than his current handicap and is at least 4 points clear of the other horses in the race eg horse A has ran a RPR of 81 in his last three races over similar course/dist/ground and has a handicap rating of 70, I have him down as +11. There will be at least 2 or three with + ratings against him but lets say the best was RPR of 79 with a handicap rating of 75 which gives a +4 rating the theory would be that horse A has a 3 lenght advantage.
Its not bomb proof but it can throw some nice price winners like Saviour Spirit(+22!!!):D @5/1 today and Norwiegan 5/1:D the other day
My rule of thumb for AW/ Turf cross over is +10 or more

I just want to say AAAAAHH!!! Desert Opal 2:50 Nott. +16 using my calculations and scoots home at 18/1. This work crack is costing me money:splapme

Originally Posted by johnthegun

I just want to say AAAAAHH!!! Desert Opal 2:50 Nott. +16 using my calculations and scoots home at 18/1. This work crack is costing me money:splapme

Hi John, have you thought about using auto betfair or something similar to place your bets? You could set the bets in the morning or the night before.

Originally Posted by wb

Hi John, have you thought about using auto betfair or something similar to place your bets? You could set the bets in the morning or the night before.

Do you not then have to leave your PC up and running with Auto Betfair also running?

Have an account alright but didnt have time to run through all the races. Poped into bookies to glance at the results and there he was waving at me an hour to late The only other one that stood out was Crispy Brook 4:50 @6/1:) . I also find it a good tool to weed out dodgy favs in handicaps

Originally Posted by mathare

Do you not then have to leave your PC up and running with Auto Betfair also running?

Yes. Not very environmentally friendly.

However, you can set all of you bets the night before, then swich on the PC overnight. Then, before you leave, simply turn it on, log into auto betfair and go.