Author Topic: Getting to Know your Draft Picks: Dan Killian (7th Rounder)  (Read 8823 times)

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Offline JMUalumni

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Daniel Killian is one of the more interesting stories in our 2008 draft.  Before I get into the details, let me start with the basics.  Killian is a 19 year old catcher from Michigan.  The previous year he played for Kellogg CC in MI, but he originally started the school year at the University of Kentucky.  See, Killian was drafted out of high school by the Nationals last year in the 32nd round when he was considered the 166th prospect in the nation.  Killian decided not to sign with the Nationals and instead enrolled at Kentucky, considered the 35th best prospect in the incoming NCAA freshmen class (3rd best catcher).  It seems that Killian had some cold feet over the amount of playing time he would get at UK and maybe even had cold feet about playing college ball for three years, so he decided to transfer to a community college in order to be able to enter the draft, yet again.  The second time around the Nationals took him in the 7th round (211th overall) and Killian signed for a $100,000 bonus.

What Kentucky's website had to say about Killian pre-2008 season:
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Dan Killian will enter Kentucky as one of the best high school catchers in the nation. Rated as the 166th best prospect in the country by PGcrosschecker.com, Killian batted .480, ripping 12 doubles and 10 home runs, garnering All-Conference and All-District honors as a junior at Chippewa Hills HS.

Killian participated in the USA Tournament of Stars this past June in Joplin, Mo., as well as the 2005 and 2006 East Coast Professional Showcase in Wilmington, NC. Killian’s oldest brother, Billy, was a UK signee in the Fall of 2003 and eventually a third-round draft pick by the San Diego Padres in the June 2004 MLB Draft.

“We feel like Dan is one of the best high school catchers in the country,” Cohen said. “He catches and throws as well as anybody we saw all summer and I think he will hit with power once his body fills out. He could be a very high draft pick in June.”
http://www.ukathletics.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=36&url_subchannel_id=&url_article_id=18870&change_well_id=2

So, why didn't Killian just sign with Nationals last year, why goto UK just to transfer to a small time community college?  The reason seems obvious at first, that he wanted to improve his draft position.  To be sure, Killian was meant to go much higher in the draft last year, but his commitment to Kentucky and a meniscus tear he suffered his Senior season in HS caused him to drop from the first seven rounds to the 32nd.  But, after looking into his story a bit more, some other reasons began to start appearing from the shadows.  Killian is recognized mostly for his defense (not so much for his offense).  His strengths come from his 6'4 195 lbs frame that allows him to throw the ball from home to second in 1.8 seconds, quite an amazing speed for such a young catcher.  His arm is his strongest asset and many, including the Nationals scouting team, believe that his skills would better be used as a pitcher than as a position player.  He has been scouted as throwing in the 93-94 MPH range. 

Here is an excerpt of an article from the Springfield Journal Register, after Killian's last season at Kellogg:
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“They called me today,” Killian said Friday afternoon. “They told me to head home, wait for them to come and sign me.”

So even before he got an at-bat for the Sliders of the Central Illinois Collegiate League, Killian is heading home to Stanwood, Mich. He doesn’t anticipate any problem coming to terms with the Nationals.

Killian batted .390 with seven home runs as a freshman this spring for Kellogg Community College in Battle Creek, Mich. He was a second-team all-state junior college player in Michigan and was picked to play in the National Junior College Athletic Association All-Star Game later this month in Millington, Tenn.

But it is as a receiver and catcher that Killian excels.

“Not that many teams even attempted to run on him,” his college coach, Eric Laskovy said. “There’s no question that’s his strength.”

Ryan Sawyers, his almost-summer manager with the Sliders, agreed.

“He can kill you at second base if you don’t catch it,” Sawyers said. “He’s throwing downhill. Dan has one of the best arms I have ever seen.

“He has some decent pop with the bat. He has to put a little focus in his hitting. He has a bright future. He has a great body.

“He’s a great person, very polite. You’d never know he has seventh-round ability if you just talk to him. He’s not arrogant at all.”
http://www.sj-r.com/college/x1489203466/Nationals-draft-Sliders-Killian-in-seventh-round

While Killian wasn't exactly playing against the worst competition in the MCCAA (Michigan Community College Athletics Assoc), he was certainly one of the best players (NJCAA all-star), and he definitely did not damage his stock, as he was taken in the round he was projected to go in 2007.  Another interesting tidbit about the kid is that his brother was a 3rd round pick for San Diego in 2004 and that his father is a scout for the Cincinnati Reds.  He definitely comes from a baseball family.  It is also worthy to note his cordial team attitude, another character guy to add.

Here are the scouting reports on Killian from 2007 and 2008:

PGCC 2008 report:
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Killian started the school year at Kentucky, but transferred back home to Michigan and Kellogg CC over the Christmas break. Killian’s big tool is his arm strength, which measures up with any amateur level catcher in the country and regularly produces pop times in the 1.85-area despite Killian’s size and length. The rest of his defensive package is solid, although still a bit raw. Killian’s prospect status has always been held back by his bat, even as he hit .412-7-41 this spring. He has a long, stiff swing that generates some raw power on mediocre stuff but he lacks natural hitting instincts and ability at this point. There has always been speculation that Killian will eventually end up on the mound to take advantage of his plus/plus tool but that hasn’t happened yet. Killian comes from a baseball family. His father is a long-time scout and his brother, Billy, is a catcher in the White Sox minor league system.

BA 2007 report:
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Catcher Dan Killian's brother Billy was a Padres third-round pick in 2004 and his father Bill is a part-time scout for the Reds. Some scouts preferred Killian to D.J. LeMahieu until he missed much of the season while recuperating from a meniscus tear in his knee. Killian has an athletic catcher's build (6-foot-3, 180 pounds) and a strong arm capable of producing 1.8-second pop times from his mitt to second base. He has bat speed and plus power potential, and he runs well for a catcher. That said, there are questions about his ability to make consistent contact and his receiving skills. Some scouts think he'd have a brighter future on the mound, where they project he'd throw 93-94 mph. A couple of teams are high on Killian and he could sneak into the fourth or fifth round. He has committed to Kentucky.

Killian was a defensive selection, as all projections on his potential power are just that, projections.  He is a young left-handed hitter that has yet to fill out his frame and could one day hit for power, so there is a lot of upside.  I'd say that he has around two or so years to prove his worthiness at catcher before the Nationals do what they have wanted to all along, convert him to pitcher (a move Killian himself has rejected thus far).  Killian was assigned to the GCL Nationals after signing and has performed below average so far (although he is still young and has time to adjust).  So far, in 82 AB, he is batting .191 with 19 TB, 18 RBI, 11 BB, and 24 SO.  He has an OPS of .542.  His numbers leave much to be desired, but it seems that he is suffering the same fate of many rookies to professional baseball, pitch selection and strikeouts.  One can only hope that he will develop an eye, but regardless, I have a strong feeling that we will see this kid in the majors one day, maybe as a catcher, maybe as a pitcher.



Offline blue911

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I remember Alex Fernandez transferring from a major university to a CC so he could be drafted earlier.

Offline PANatsFan

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At least he's got his game face on :lol: I'm sure there are fare more flattering pictures of him.

Offline JMUalumni

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At least he's got his game face on :lol: I'm sure there are fare more flattering pictures of him.

Haha I was thinking the same thing when I found that pic.  The only other one I found of him earlier was this one, which makes him look like a little boy:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y136/Rocket1124/Nats%20Minors/a32c9e95.jpg

Offline PANatsFan

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Haha I was thinking the same thing when I found that pic.  The only other one I found of him earlier was this one, which makes him look like a little boy:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y136/Rocket1124/Nats%20Minors/a32c9e95.jpg



Reminds of a college buddy in that one.

Offline NFA Brian

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JMU - Thanks for doing this. It's nice to see a thorough background all in one place. I've linked your posts over at NFA so others who might not post here will benefit from your hard work.

Offline JMUalumni

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JMU - Thanks for doing this. It's nice to see a thorough background all in one place. I've linked your posts over at NFA so others who might not post here will benefit from your hard work.

Feel free to post it anywhere, even more so on your site.

Offline sportsfan882

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Why not turn Killian into a pitcher? His hitting isn't cutting it.

JMU's scouting report says he has a great arm.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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If the kid wants to try to make the majors as a player rather than a pitcher, then you almost have to let him fail to hit before you convince him to convert. Who knows, maybe the Nats made soem sort of agreement he could try to catch first and that was part of the understanding that led him to sign.  It's not unprecedented.   Casey Kelly is one of the few I can think of that is getting time both at a position and as a pitcher, and he's doing so because that was the only way he could be signed rather than go to school.

Offline sportsfan882

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But he's already failed at hitting.

Hit .189/.303/.273 in 132 ABs with GCL Nats in '08.

Hit .187/.250/.224 in 107 ABs with Vermont in '09.

It's stunning how poorly he has done. Make him a pitcher.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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< 240 ABs as an 18- 19 year old?  If he were a college guy with about 500 ABs in the minors, then I'd push hard to convert him now.  Otherwise, I just suggest he think about it for another season or two.

At what age do position players typically convert?  Betancourt waited until he was 22 and had 460 plate appearances.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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< 240 ABs as an 18- 19 year old?  If he were a college guy with about 500 ABs in the minors, then I'd push hard to convert him now.  Otherwise, I just suggest he think about it for another season or two.

At what age do position players typically convert?  Betancourt waited until he was 22 and had 460 plate appearances.

Sample size means nothing. D'oh.

We all know Kyle Breault is a bust after going 0-7 with 4 K's in his first pro action this summer. We should cut the kid now.