With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

Happy Memorial Day, y’all, and enjoy your beach time and barbecues, because we have an action-packed summer ahead. We’re days away from a certain much-anticipated trial verdict, one month away from the first presidential debate, seven weeks out from the Republican National Convention — with a vice-presidential selection, a G7 summit and an entire British election cycle tucked in between.

We’re thankful for this respite, and we’re thankful for your readership. And today, we’re especially thankful for those service members who lost their lives defending ours, so we’d like to start by flagging a pair of stories highlighting the invaluable work being done to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.

• The AP’s Josh Funk profiles the work of the Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency, a little-known federal lab based at Nebraska’s Offutt Air Force Base, where “forensic anthropologists, medical examiners and historians who work together to identify lost soldiers are in a race against time as remains buried on battlefields around the globe deteriorate.”
  
• And WaPo’s Kelsey Baker examines the uncertain fate of thousands of mementos left at Section 60 of Arlington National Cemetery, where many of those who died in Iraq and Afghanistan are buried. The objects have been meticulously saved and catalogued without a firm plan for their preservation, and time is running out to make one. 

Now, on to the news. Here are three developing storylines that caught our eye and will figure into the long summer ahead:

— Libertarians wrap up a drama-filled convention … CHASE OLIVER emerged as the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee last night after a final run-off ballot where the alternative was “none of the above.” In case you were wondering: Neither DONALD TRUMP nor ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., who both addressed LP delegates this weekend, ended up being a serious factor in the voting. Kennedy was eliminated in the first round, garnering just 19 voters, and Trump was ruled ineligible since he will already be a party nominee.

Oliver won the nomination after eight hours and seven rounds of voting. POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson reports that he’s “best known outside the party for his role in Georgia’s Senate race,” where he garnered enough of the 2022 vote to force a runoff election between Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.) and Republican HERSCHEL WALKER.

What could be more impactful is Oliver’s role in the Libertarians’ internal turmoil. As WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield notes, “Oliver is supported by the Classic Liberal Caucus, a left-leaning faction,” prevailing over chief rival MICHAEL RECTENWALD, who was backed by the right-wing Mises Caucus and had led on most of the day’s ballots. In the end, Oliver won 60 percent; the rest opted for no nomination.

The upshot appears to be that the Libertarian nominee could be even less of a factor than usual, between the party’s schism and the emergence of Kennedy as an alternative for disaffected voters. Still, in what could be an extraordinarily close election, a few thousand votes here or there can matter. And keep an eye on Oliver, who is explicitly going after young voters who are angry about immigration, the cost of living and the war in Gaza.

— Biden’s economic message still needs work … The WSJ’s Catherine Lucey and Ken Thomas put a spotlight on an ongoing frustration among Democrats who think President JOE BIDEN has yet to strike the right balance in discussing the economy.

Yes, by many macroeconomic measures, folks should be feeling pretty okay about their finances, which is what Biden loves to talk about. But high prices persist, making voters more and more pessimistic about the economy — and ready to blame Biden for it.

“Within the White House, some aides are pushing for a message that makes empathy toward the economic plight of certain Americans more central,” Lucey and Thomas report. “Some noticed a preview of that direction when the president described the April inflation report in a statement, writing, ‘I know many families are struggling, and that even though we’ve made progress we have a lot more to do.’”

Part of the solution, they add, is to adopt the approach the campaign has embraced more generally: make it about the alternative, not the almighty: “Biden aides argue that the president needs to … talk about his economic accomplishments and how they compare with Trump’s approach to the economy, including the GOP rival’s plans to extend tax cuts for the wealthy.”

— Trump’s trial draws to a close … Going into its seventh week, we are finally expecting an imminent verdict in Trump’s hush money trial, with jurors expected to begin deliberations as soon as tomorrow. We’ll have more on what to expect tomorrow and through the week, but our Josh Gerstein tees up the action today with five questions that could frame the jury’s decision:

• Are the records in question business or personal? Trump’s 34 felony count charges are for falsifying business records. Jurors will have to decide whether routing Trump’s personal funds through the Trump Organization’s accounting system makes them legit business records.
• Were the records actually false? The accounting entries in Trump Org docs describe the payments as a “legal expense,” while MICHAEL COHEN’s invoices describe them a “retainer.” Prosecutors say those are falsehood, but that claim is in dispute.
• Does it matter if the sex happened? Trump has always denied any assignation with STORMY DANIELS, and it’s unclear if it will matter: The jury could convict Trump even if jurors doubt Daniels’ story — or acquit him even if they don’t believe Trump’s denials.
• Was Cohen believable? As we’ve frequently pointed out, Cohen is the key witness, pointing to Trump’s personal role in the payoff discussions. But he’s also a known liar who had some dubious moments on the stand.
• Did prosecutors prove Trump’ campaign-related intent? In order to prove a felony offense, experts believe it’s crucial to prove that Trump did what he did to benefit his campaign. There’s no smoking gun on that point, and Trump’s lawyer “are likely to argue to the jury that the lack of evidence … is a fatal flaw in the government’s case.”

Good Monday morning, and once again, a happy and solemn Memorial Day. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SHOCKING HEADLINE — “Papua New Guinea landslide buried more than 2,000 people, government says,” by Reuters’ Lewis Jackson and Renju Jose: “Defence Minister BILLY JOSEPH said 4,000 people had been living in the six remote villages in the Maip-Mulitaka area in Enga province, where the landslide occurred in the early hours of Friday while most were asleep.”

THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Trump hush money trial resumes in Manhattan with closing arguments. Texas holds congressional primary runoffs. … Thursday: Possible announcement of Supreme Court opinions. 1Q economic growth figures released. Scripps National Spelling Bee concludes at National Harbor. … Friday: Core PCE inflation data released. … Saturday: LGBTQ+ Pride Month begins. Parliamentary voting in India concludes. … Sunday: Mexico holds national elections.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden hosted a breakfast in honor of Memorial Day this morning. Later, Biden will participate in a wreath laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and deliver a Memorial Day address at the 156th National Memorial Day Observance. VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will attend.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Massive fires that followed Israeli air strikes swept through a Rafah tent camp, killing at least 45 Palestinians and injuring dozens more overnight, Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Dan Williams report from Cairo and Jerusalem: “Israel said initial investigations showed an attack against commanders of the Hamas militant group set off the fire. Survivors said families were preparing to sleep when the strike hit. … More than half of the dead were women, children, and elderly people, health officials in Hamas-run Gaza said, adding that the death toll was likely to rise from people with severe burns.” Foreign leaders, including French President EMMANUEL MACRON, decried the attacks.

Elsewhere in the region … Israeli settler groups have ramped up their attacks on aid trucks passing through the West Bank this month blocking food and supplies from reaching Gaza, WaPo’s Loveday Morris reports: “The assailants use a web of publicly accessible WhatsApp groups to track the trucks and coordinate attacks. … The violence and vandalism, committed with near-total impunity, raises questions about the willingness of Israel’s security forces to restrain extremist settlers and protect Palestinians. It also challenges the Israeli government’s claim that it is doing all it can to ensure that aid flows to Gaza.”

And on the campaign trail … At a roundtable event earlier this month, Trump told a roomful of donors in New York that he would deport students taking part in pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses and said he supports Israel’s right to continue its “war on terror,” WaPo’s Josh Dawsey, Karen DeYoung and Marianne LeVine report: “Well, if you get me elected, and you should really be doing this, if you get me reelected, we’re going to set that movement back 25 or 30 years,” Trump said.

2. THE NUCLEAR OPTION: In an effort to sidestep tensions with Tehran ahead of the November election, the Biden administration is pushing European allies not to formally censure Iran for advancements in its nuclear program, though “U.S. officials deny lobbying against a resolution,” WSJ’s Laurence Norman scoops. Still, “European diplomats have warned that failure to take action would undermine the authority of the IAEA, which polices nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. They say it also weakens the credibility of Western pressure on Iran. And they are frustrated over what they see as U.S. efforts to undermine their approach.”

3. MIRROR, MIRROR:  “If you think Biden has troubles, just look at Trudeau,” by Kyle Duggan: “[Canadian PM JUSTIN] TRUDEAU’s difficulties, to some extent, mirror those of President Joe Biden and some Western European leaders facing populist rage in a world still struggling to shake off the inflation and lingering anger over pandemic lockdowns. … The speculation over whether Trudeau might step down, at this point, remains just that — with neither the prime minister nor any of his aides or allies saying he has any intention of throwing in the towel. …Trudeau’s situation will only deteriorate heading into fall if his approval rating doesn’t improve, if fundraising dwindles, his caucus sours and more lawmakers announce that they don’t plan to run again.”

4. NO CONSENSUS ON AI: As Congress struggles to wrap its head around ways to regulate emerging artificial intelligence technology, the latest legislative effort focusing on nonconsensual AI pornography is mired in debate, Mohar Chatterjee reports: “[Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN’s (D-Ill.)] office crafted an amendment to the Violence Against Women Act that protects survivors of sexual assault and domestic violence. The DEFIANCE Act would give victims the right to sue creators, solicitors, possessors and distributors of AI-generated porn in civil court … Already, tech lobbyists have objected to the DEFIANCE Act, with industry group NetChoice writing POLITICO that it ‘is likely overbroad and unconstitutional.’”

5. ANNALS OF EDITORIAL HINDSIGHT: Semafor’s Ben Smith and Max Tani delve into WaPo’s decision not to run the story of the upside-down American flag flown in front of Supreme Court Justice SAMUEL ALITO’s home back in 2021: “The decision was a matter of ‘consensus,’ said CAMERON BARR, the former senior managing editor, who said he takes responsibility for the decision not to run the story. The Post’s then-editor-in-chief, MARTIN BARON, told Semafor that he had been unaware of the story at the time. … The Post’s move was cautious and deferential, and very pre-Dobbs. Now, it’s hard to imagine.”

6. PLANNING AHEAD: “Biden’s got a plan to protect science from Trump,” by Erin Schumaker: “In an effort to Trump-proof, NIH has designated an official to identify political meddling in the agency’s work and is tasking a soon-to-be-established scientific integrity council with reviewing those cases. … The White House’s Office of Personnel Management last month finalized rules to make it difficult for Trump, or any president, to strip civil servants in policymaking roles of their job protection, an idea Trump pursued weeks before the 2020 election.”

7. DIRE STRAITS: “US lawmakers pledge support for Taiwan and its new president after China’s military drills,” by AP’s Johnson Lai and Ken Moritsugu: “The lawmakers’ five-day visit ‘ran against the political commitment of the U.S. government to maintain only unofficial relations with Taiwan, sending a seriously wrong signal to the separatist force of Taiwan independence,’ Foreign Ministry Spokesperson MAO NING said in Beijing. … The new foreign minister, LIN CHIA-LUNG, noted the recent Chinese drills and called the American delegation’s visit ‘an important gesture of solidarity’ at a critical time.”

Meanwhile in Washington … AP’s Didi Tang pulls back the curtain on the eight-person State Department team focused on “easing the economic blowback” for nations targeted by Beijing: “Led by State Department senior adviser MELANIE HART, the group reviews vulnerabilities and develops responses for countries that are cut off or fear losing trade with global powerhouse China. Since the group’s launch with Lithuania, more than a dozen countries have approached the Biden administration for assistance.”

8. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: In the first three-way talks since 2019, Chinese Premier LI QIANG met with South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL and Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA in Seoul today for a summit aimed at revitalizing trade and security talks, Reuters’ Hyonhee Shin reports: “Li said the meeting was ‘both a restart and a new beginning’ and called for the comprehensive resumption of cooperation between East Asia's economic powerhouses. But for this to happen politics should be separated from economic and trade issues, he added, calling for an end to protectionism and the decoupling of supply chains.”

9. DEEP IN THE HEART: “How Uvalde’s GOP congressman is navigating a tense runoff and plotting to take out right-wing ‘anarchists,’” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Shania Shelton: Rep. TONY GONZALES (R-Texas) “said the outcome of Tuesday’s runoff against gun activist BRANDON HERRERA will send a clear message to Republicans amid a period of bitter intraparty infighting that has led to an ousted speaker, a stalled agenda and roiled relations across the House GOP Conference. … ‘Are we going to be the party that governs and gets things done in a conservative manner?’ Gonzales said. ‘Or are we going to be the party that has jesters that come up here and say wild and crazy outrageous things and just try to burn the place down.’”

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — Former Clinton White House counsel Jack Quinn's memorial service will be held Wednesday at 11 a.m. at the Washington National Cathedral and will also be livestreamed. In lieu of flowers, the family is asking for donations to support the renovation of the Little Sanctuary at St. Albans School.

Nicole Shanahan and Ron Paul had a chat.

Donald Trump endorsed John Barrasso for Senate.

Steve Daines isn’t happy about Marc Fisher’s take on his Washington football logo push.

SPOTTED Saturday night at the Shakespeare Theatre Company’s production of Matchbox Magic Flute: Andrew Wheeler.

BIRTHWEEK (Was yesterday): Margo Tercek

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Alma Adams (D-N.C.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) … David Plouffe … NYT’s Campbell Robertson and Noam Scheiber … former Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) … Andrew Harnik … former Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) … Benny Johnson … Megan McCrink … Cary O’Reilly … POLITICO’s Cy Zaneski ... Randy Lemmerman … Kat Dimenstein of General Atomics … Rasheedah Thomas of Emerald Digital Solutions … Brigid Schulte of New America … PhRMA’s Andrew Powaleny … Kelsey Baron ... Andrew Seidman ... Jenny Drucker … Drew Cole ... Andrew Overton … Stefanie Weishaupt Prelesnik ... Devan Barber … Thalia Assuras … Cynthia McFadden … Donni Turner of Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-Colo.) office

Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter included an outdated professional affiliation for Randy Lemmerman.