Only 38 percent of respondents said Obama deserves to be reelected, even though a majority of voters hold a favorable view of him on a personal level. Forty-four percent said they will vote to oust him, and 13 percent said they will consider voting for someone else.

Get full poll results.

It’s Obama’s policies that are hurting him right now. By a 13-point margin, voters are down on the health care law. In an especially troubling sign, more than half of self-identified independents — 54 percent — have an unfavorable opinion of the law, compared with just 38 percent who have a favorable opinion.

And by an 11-point margin, voters trust congressional Republicans to create jobs more than Obama. His approval rating stands at 46 percent, according to the poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted Sept. 19 to Sept. 22.

The tea party movement, which has emerged as the biggest threat to Democrats’ dominance of Washington, is viewed favorably by 43 percent of respondents, compared with 35 percent who view it unfavorably.

Perceptions of the grass-roots activists vary widely by region: In the Northeast, nearly half — 47 percent — have a negative view of the movement, suggesting it could prove to be a drag on GOP candidates in a region where the party has bottomed out in recent years.

But in the eight-state Mountain West region, more than half — 53 percent — have a favorable view of the tea party movement, which could prove helpful to prominent tea-party-backed Senate nominees in Nevada and Colorado.

Congressional Democrats actually did better than Obama when measured against Republicans on the big economic questions of the day. Congressional Democrats held a 2-point edge when asked who could best turn around the economy; Republicans held an 8-point edge when matched up against Obama.

For congressional Democrats, the trend was especially promising. Forty-six percent believe Democrats in Congress will better handle the issue of turning around the economy — an almost 10-percentage-point spike since the last Battleground Poll nearly two weeks ago.

This poll, like most others in recent weeks, showed why Democrats should be nervous heading into the final five weeks of the campaign. Republicans held a 4-point edge in the generic ballot; the two parties were tied in the last poll, which was conducted 10 days earlier.

Republicans, especially older voters, remain more energized than Democrats, which, at this point, is perhaps the biggest cause for concern among the majority.

As far as the 2012 race is concerned, Obama’s re-elect number--38%--is the same as Gallup’s finding for Bill Clinton in October 1994. The president remains more popular than Sarah Palin, the most recognizable top Republican to voters. By an 8-point margin, voters would back Obama over Palin if the vote were today, and support for her is weak in the Midwest and the Northeast. But Palin’s problems run deeper: 58 percent said her actions since resigning as Alaska governor in 2009 have made them less likely to vote for her for president. She and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich were the only leading 2012 possibilities with net negative favorability ratings.

Palin sparked an especially strong reaction among female voters: 54 percent view her unfavorably, while just 38 percent have a favorable view. No other Republicans tested had such high negatives among women in general. Broken down by party though, Republican women were overwhelmingly positive toward her — 76 percent view her favorably. Among Democratic women, however, just 11 percent view her favorably, compared with 82 percent who view her unfavorably.

Mike Huckabee continues to do well in early polling, with 48 percent holding a favorable view of him, easily the best among the possible GOP candidates tested. Mitt Romney came closest to Huckabee, with 45 percent holding a favorable view of him.

Interestingly, more than 60 percent of voters have never heard of some of the hottest names in D.C. circles these days — Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

The most prominent prospective third-party candidate, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, would have a steep climb in 2012. Roughly two-thirds of those surveyed — 68 percent — said they would not consider voting for the billionaire three-term mayor as an independent candidate. Support for him fell off considerably outside the Northeast.