The credit crunch threatens to bring to an end the longest recorded period of falling crime in living memory in England and Wales, Home Office criminologists said yesterday.
As the latest British Crime Survey (BCS) data was published yesterday, showing a 10% fall in crime levels - equal to a million fewer offences - over the past year, government officials predicted the economic slowdown would lead to "upward pressure" on levels of property crime, such as burglary and car break-ins.
They said many desirable consumer items, such as mobile phones and MP3 players, were inexpensive enough to be affordable but a shift in real-wage rates could put them out of reach.
The Home Office's chief scientific adviser, Professor Paul Wiles, said the 10% fall to 10.1m crimes, estimated by the BCS, continued the overall 48% decline in crime since it peaked in 1995.
The figures for last year showed violent crime down 12%, car crime down 11%, vandalism down 10%, robberies down 16% and domestic burglary and personal theft stable. The only categories that showed an increase were gun crime, with the number of incidents involving firearms up 2%, and drug offences, which rose 18% - an increase officials said was due to greater police use of their powers to issue warnings for cannabis possession.
Wiles said the chance of becoming a victim of crime had fallen from 24% to 22%, while victimisation rates fell to their lowest levels since the BCS began in 1981.
The survey also showed that the public remained sceptical about the accuracy of crime data: two-thirds said they believed national crime rates had risen in the past two years. But there was some comfort for ministers - only 39% of the public believed crime had risen in their area.
Wiles said long-term data showed levels of worry about crime had fallen by a third since 1999, matching the longer-term drop in the crime rate. Drugs and the lack of parental discipline were the most commonly identified causes of crime.
He said the fall in the crime rate in England and Wales since the mid-1990s had been mirrored by similar declines in most other western nations. The possible factors behind the fall included: a decade of growth and prosperity; the global growth in anti-crime measures, including burglar and car alarms and better locks and bolts; and the shift in the demographic profile to a more ageing population.
Under 16s The BCS has been criticised over the years for failing to include under 16s in its 40,000 interviews. The Home Office said yesterday they would be included, though officials did not expect the experience of 14- and 15-year-olds to be significantly different to 16- and 17-year-olds. Under 16s had for years been excluded from the survey, the Home Office said, because it was thought improper to interview children without parental consent.
Burglary and car crime The biggest falls in crime were recorded in domestic burglaries, car thefts and thefts from cars. The number of domestic burglaries fell from 1.7m in 1996 to 729,000 in 07/08, according to the BCS. Young unemployed males and single adults with children were far more likely to be burgled than those with a householder aged over 75. Homes with no security measures were 10 times more likely to be burgled. The number of car-related thefts fell by 66% over the past decade to 1.497m in 07/08 - a decline of 11% over the year.
Drug crime The crime survey showed continuing falls in the use of illegal drugs by all age groups. Among younger people - aged 16 to 24 - the number who used an illicit drug fell in the past year from 24% to 21%. Although overall drug use continued to fall, police recorded drug offences rose 18% to 228,000 in the year to April. Home Office statisticians said that was a reflection of police activity against drugs, rather than an indication of drug use.
Geography Crime was not evenly spread, the survey found, with more than half of robberies, for example, concentrated in just 29 mainly inner-city local authority areas. However, recent trends have shown that crime has reduced in high-crime areas at a faster rate than elsewhere.
Fraud Banking industry figures published yesterday have shown that credit card fraud has ballooned, with 2.7m fraudulent transactions recorded last year on UK-issued cards in 2007 - an increase of 20%. Much of this growth has been linked to the rapid expansion of online shopping.