It was largely a dull week for financial markets in terms of scheduled data and volatility, but numerous Fed speeches helped reiterate what the market...
"Abandon all hope ye who enter here." (Dante’s words, not Disney’s.) That could be the slogan of Times Square, but for those who just spent days at th...
If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a dis...
For the most part, the current week is sorely lacking in the sort of scheduled economic data and events that typically contribute to exciting movement...
Some people say, “You’re crazy to stay in residential lending in this environment, and it’s not going to improve dramatically in the near future.” No,...
It's day 6 of the increasingly famous 11-day weekend (1 normal weekend plus the 3 day Memorial Day weekend and the 5 days in between without any big t...
It was another slow day for the mortgage market and one that joins a list of several other relatively inconsequential days in the past few weeks. Thi...
The inventory of existing homes for sale increased from March to April, but the increased availability didn’t bolster sales. The National Association ...
As many from the conference fly home, there was a lot of information flying around the conference this week. (Check out the climate and catastrophe no...
It's unclear if the industry can recover from what is surely one of the most troubling rate spikes in modern economic history. Invoking one of the mos...
Interest rates hit a seven-week low last week, boosting the level of refinancing applications for the third straight week, but those for home purchase...
Referring to the past 3 business days as a "losing streak" for mortgage rates may be a bit harsh. During that time, the average top tier 30yr fixed r...
Ever since the inflation data in Q1 proved to be less rate-friendly than we might have hoped, the Fed has been exactly as unfriendly as we might have ...
Mortgage rates moved modestly higher on the two days at the end of last week. This put an end to a decent winning streak that had been in place since...
It's not too common to refer to a week with Fed meeting minutes as "super slow," but at the risk of complacency, how could the Fed possibly share any ...
Greetings from the Arch MI meeting room space! Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s Secondary conference in Manhattan: “Our loan officers are telli...
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing st...
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
We’re only a few days away from the MBA’s Capital Markets Conference. Attendees, don’t forget to pick up your badges, or else! (Speaking of interestin...
On the average day in the mortgage market, the average lender will offer the same mortgage rate terms for the entire day. It's only when the underlyi...
The latest data on new residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau paints a somewhat mixed picture of the housing market. While housing compl...
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Attendees of next week’s MBA Secondary conference can look forward to… A giant hot dog in Times Square that spits out confetti at high noon. (Keep you...
If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today ...
Builders’ confidence in the new home market retreated this month , the first decline since last November. The National Association of Home Builders (N...
Misconceptions and misunderstandings… Capital markets folks at the MBA conference next week should know that The Naked Cowboy in Times Square is not r...
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Lower interest rates gave a lift to refinancing activity for the second week but failed to do the same for those financing home purchases. The Mortgag...
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official ...
Attendees are gearing up for the upcoming MBA Secondary Conference in Manhattan. Basketball fans know it as the home of Madison Square Garden and are ...
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that ...
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Ahead of the upcoming MBA conference in Manhattan, as a reminder, we have five senses. All of them are important, with perhaps smell being the most un...
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, b...
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
On a flight yesterday I had a choice of movies and, knowing nothing about it, chose “The Beekeeper,” filled with severed fingers and broken glass bein...
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make t...
The 11-Day Weekend is Now Official
If there was one objective hurdle to clear in order to consider the present week completely uneventful in terms of big picture rate momentum, it would have been that th...