Assessments

South Africa

Mexico

United States

France

India

A rally for Morena party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum on May 29 in Mexico City's Zocalo.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's ANC Faces a Reckoning, Mexican Voters Select a New President

Media

Russia

Podcasts

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

How might this trend of sabotage incidents evolve?

Essential Geopolitics: Global Implications of Russia's Sabotage Campaign

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 23, 2024

Iran

China

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

Military & Security

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Taiwan

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Global Elections

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

The sun sets over a U.S. flag at a veterans cemetery in Los Angeles, California, in May 2018.

The act of formal remembrance is one of the most profound human gestures, whether it is conducted on the personal or the national level.

Memorial Day, The Eternal Observance 

Israel

Palestinian Territories

United Kingdom

Supporters of the African National Congress (ANC) party dance, sing and chant slogans during a campaign march on May 24, 2024, in Johannesburg, South Africa. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's General Election, Israel Resumes Hostage Talks With Hamas

Vietnam

To Lam is sworn in as Vietnam's president during the National Assembly's summer session in Hanoi on May 22, 2024. 

With To Lam no longer at the helm, Vietnam's sweeping anti-graft drive will likely slow. But the former security chief's promotion still primes him to assume the country's top political role in 2026, portending more scrutiny of foreign entities.

The Enforcer of Vietnam's Anti-Corruption Campaign Has Been Appointed President

Snapshots

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Cyber

Within America's borders, physical and cyber threats are expected to intensify in the lead-up to the election. Both foreign and domestic actors have already begun to leverage artificial intelligence tools to spread disinformation and deepfake media to influence the outcome or just sow discord. While U.S. authorities have been on high alert for such activity, no one can fully anticipate how the advent and maturation of this disruptive technology will influence the election. In the physical realm, the increasingly polarized political atmosphere will lend itself to a heightened risk of violence and/or protest activity, both before and immediately after the election.

Physical and Cyber Threats in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Latest

Europe

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks during a meeting at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on May 13, 2024. 

Meloni's party is expected to perform strongly in the upcoming European Parliament elections, which would grant the Italian prime minister more sway over EU policymaking in the years ahead.

Under Meloni, Italy's Influence in the EU Is Set To Grow

Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Netherlands

The four leaders of the parties that form the new Dutch government,  Geert Wilders, Dilan Yesilgoz, Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt, (L-R) on May 16 in The Hague.

While some elements of the new Dutch ruling coalition's agreement, such as a tightening of migration policies and environmental measures, will likely cause friction with the European Union and the Dutch business community, the far right's need to collaborate with mainstream coalition partners has somewhat moderated the new government's agenda.

Building a New Government Moderates the Dutch Far Right

Georgia

Georgian students protest the government's controversial ''foreign agents'' bill in Tbilisi on May 13, 2024. 

While the bill's passage may increase and radicalize supporters of the pro-Western opposition, the ruling GD party is still favored to win upcoming elections, ensuring the country's continued reorientation toward Russia.

Georgia Is Set To Adopt Its Controversial 'Foreign Agents' Bill. What Now?

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Ethiopia

Somalia

The internal security ministry of Somalia's South West state contradicted National Security Advisor Hussein Moalim's claim that Ethiopian troops would withdraw from Somalia by December, Garowe Online reported on June 3. 

Somalia: Regional Officials Dispute Federal Government's Deadline for Ethiopian Troop Withdrawal

Iraq

The U.N. Security Council unanimously extended the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, or UNAMI, for a final time to Dec. 31, 2025, Anadolu Agency reported on May 31.

Iraq: U.N. Security Council Extends Iraq Mission Mandate to December 2025

Egypt

Egypt conditioned the reopening of the Rafah border crossing on Israel's withdrawal of forces from the border during discussions with the United States and Israel regarding Rafah, Anadolu Agency reported on June 2.

Egypt, Israel: Cairo Demands Israeli Withdrawal From Border Before Reopening Rafah Crossing

Several exit polls conducted by Indian media outlets indicated that India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, and its allies are expected to clinch 350-380 of the 543 seats in the lower house of Parliament, Reuters reported on June 3.

India: Final Phase of General Election Ends, With Modi Projected To Win in Exit Surveys

S&P Global downgraded France's long-term sovereign debt rating to "AA-" from "AA," citing a deterioration in the country's budgetary position and expectations for higher-than-expected deficits through 2027, a statement from the rating agency showed on May 31.

France: S&P's Downgrades Increase Pressure on Paris To Implement Spending Cuts

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ordered Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly to form a new government and select a new Cabinet after submitting the government's resignation, Bloomberg reported on June 3.

Egypt: President al-Sisi Orders Prime Minister Madbouly To Form New Government

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has agreed in talks with minor coalition partner Komeito and conservative opposition party Nippon Ishin to lower the minimum reportable amount of funds raised from party event ticket sales in the draft Political Funds Control Law (PFCL), the Asahi Shimbun reported June 1.

Japan: LDP Talks With Nippon Ishin, Shows Potential for a More Military-Focused Coalition

Turkey

Turkish security forces detained the pro-Kurdish mayor of Turkey's southeastern Hakkari province, Mehmet Siddik Akis, over his alleged links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, Reuters reported on May 3.

Turkey: Security Forces Arrest Pro-Kurdish Mayor Over Alleged PKK Links

The Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel signaled that they were open to but had not agreed upon a U.S.-proposed cease-fire that would end the nearly nine months of war in Gaza over three phases, The Times of Israel reported on June 3. 

Israel, Gaza: U.S.-Proposed Cease-Fire Deal Unlikely To Survive Past Phase One, if at All

Energy

OPEC+ agreed on June 2 to extend its formal oil production cut targets until the end of 2025. 

Global: OPEC+ Extends Formal Production Cuts, May Phase Out 'Voluntary' Cuts From October

Science & Technology

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Regional Officials Dispute Federal Government's Deadline for Ethiopian Troop Withdrawal

Iraq: U.N. Security Council Extends Iraq Mission Mandate to December 2025

Egypt, Israel: Cairo Demands Israeli Withdrawal From Border Before Reopening Rafah Crossing

India: Final Phase of General Election Ends, With Modi Projected To Win in Exit Surveys

France: S&P's Downgrades Increase Pressure on Paris To Implement Spending Cuts

Egypt: President al-Sisi Orders Prime Minister Madbouly To Form New Government

Japan: LDP Talks With Nippon Ishin, Shows Potential for a More Military-Focused Coalition

Turkey: Security Forces Arrest Pro-Kurdish Mayor Over Alleged PKK Links

Israel, Gaza: U.S.-Proposed Cease-Fire Deal Unlikely To Survive Past Phase One, if at All

Global: OPEC+ Extends Formal Production Cuts, May Phase Out 'Voluntary' Cuts From October

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