SPC AC 021730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon
   into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great
   Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into
   Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies
   into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with
   the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of
   NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO
   Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt
   of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across
   TX/OK.

   ...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity...
   In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level
   moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to
   previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to
   move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy
   and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support
   isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the
   afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary
   hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While
   low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two
   cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if
   sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the
   afternoon.

   ...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles...
   In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for
   moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the
   central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However,
   relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates
   will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak
   heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the
   cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear
   will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters
   could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale
   growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves
   east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts
   and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding
   buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at
   this time.

   ..Dean.. 05/02/2024

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