Playbook: Trump plays his cards in Vegas

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

THE HUMAN TOLL — AP: “Gaza’s Health Ministry says 274 Palestinians were killed in Israeli raid that rescued 4 hostages” … National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the U.S. offered help with the hostage rescue, but did not specify how. More from Mia McCarthy

A STATISTICAL TIE — DONALD TRUMP leads JOE BIDEN nationally among likely voters, 50% to 49%, in a new CBS/YouGov poll. But in battleground states, those numbers are flipped: Biden bests Trump, 50% to 49%. Both leads are well within the 3.8-point margin of error.

THE BATTLE FOR NEVADA — Trump is in Las Vegas today for a rally, wooing voters in a state that hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate in two decades. While Trump lost the state in 2016 and 2020, recent polling has made Republicans positively giddy about the prospects of flipping the state — especially as support for Biden remains anemic among Hispanic voters. (The Trump camp “is expected to launch a new ‘Latino Americans for Trump’ coalition” today in Vegas, per CNN.)

Temperatures are expected to top the 100s, prompting Trump’s team to recruit extra medics to be on site, stock up on water and misting fans, raise cooling tents and even permit attendees to bring in umbrellas, the AP reports this morning. It comes after nearly a dozen attendees were taken to hospitals for heat exhaustion during Trump’s Thursday Arizona rally.

The big question in Vegas today is whether Trump will finally endorse former U.S. Army Capt. SAM BROWN, the more establishment-aligned candidate in Nevada’s GOP Senate primary on Tuesday. Trump has declined to weigh in; his onetime ambassador to Iceland, JEFF GUNTER, and election denier JIM MARCHA, a former state rep, are also running.

Last minute lobbying could be in play: The host of a Trump fundraiser last night, DON AHERN, is backing Gunter, who also attended the exclusive event. Both Gunter and Brown will be at the rally today, per The Hill, potentially making for awkward optics.

Landing a Trump endorsement of Brown has been a top priority for NRSC Chairman STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.), who not only helped recruit Brown but has personally encouraged Trump to throw his weight behind him.

Washington Republicans believe they have a better-than-projected chance of ousting incumbent Democratic Sen. JACKY ROSEN with Brown on the ballot — given his personal story of sacrifice and military service (he was left permanently scarred by third-degree burn wounds after surviving an explosion in Afghanistan) and his potential cross-aisle appeal. (There’s also a belief that the romance between him and his wife, who cared for him during his recovery, will melt voters’ hearts.)

“This is a situation where President Trump helps Sam Brown. I think Sam Brown helps President Trump,” Daines told our colleague Burgess Everett a few days ago, looking ahead to November. “I think they help each other.”

KNOWING DOUG BURGUM — Now that he’s seemingly topping Trump’s list of potential running mates, North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM gets the Times treatment this morning. Michael Bender goes deep into the tech entrepreneur’s storied career, his personality and even his personal quirks. (More on those in a second…)

For Trump, choosing Burgum would have its risks — but also potential rewards. On the one hand, he has little name recognition, is untested in today’s contentious national political environment, hasn’t undergone anywhere near the scrutiny he’s about to face should he be picked and “is not an ideological warrior like others under consideration,” Bender writes.

But on the other hand, Trump himself arguably appeals enough already to these ideologically driven hardliners, so picking a man known for his Midwestern nice could potentially expand Trump’s reach to a different type of voter.

Burgum also has a success story to tell: He’s gone from working as a chimney sweep and branding cattle as a ranch hand to becoming a self-made businessman worth hundreds of millions of dollars. And lucky for Trump, he’s clearly not afraid of self-funding, personally funding his gubernatorial bid in 2016 and pouring $14 million into his bid for the White House.

As for looks, which are clearly important to the former president: Trump has also told people that Burgum looks the part, and has gushed over his thick head of hair.

One rather serious challenge Burgum will face: Others who want this job are well aware that he wasn’t exactly a Trump enthusiast at first and that he has taken positions Trump won’t necessarily like. They’re making sure Trump is aware that Burgum just last year (1) said he wouldn’t do business with Trump, though he’s walked this back; (2) admitted Biden won the 2020 election and said former VP MIKE PENCE did the right thing on Jan. 6; (3) wouldn’t say if Trump should be trusted with the nuclear codes during one sit-down; and (4) dodged questions about whether he'd pardon Trump if he became president.

Of course, how many of these would-be VP candidates also criticized Trump in the past before they became his best friend? Most of them.

Some other fun Burgum insights from Bender:

  • He has a sense of humor. When he cleaned chimneys, he literally wore “a black top hat and tails to evoke DICK VAN DYKE’S character in “Mary Poppins.”
  • He’s a bit of an oddball: “As a student at North Dakota State, Mr. Burgum avoided declaring a major and instead asked friends for their most passionate teachers and enrolled in those classes.”
  • He’s not afraid of risk: “Mr. Burgum was 26 when he quite literally bet the family farm. He mortgaged 160 acres of farmland inherited from his father to finance a $250,000 stake in Great Plains Software, a small Fargo-based start-up.”
  • His gambles paid off: “In 1997, the company became the first tech company in North Dakota to go public … Mr. Burgum sold the company in 2001 to Microsoft for a $1.1 billion all-stock deal and joined as a top executive.”
  • He has some political sense: “When he oversaw the construction of a new hotel in downtown Fargo, he ensured it would be shorter than North Dakota’s tallest building — the state capitol in Bismarck — to avoid ruffling feathers.”
  • He comes from a long-line of American “firsts” stories, tracing his lineage back to his great-grandmother, who was close friends with SUSAN B. ANTHONY and one of the first settlers in the Plains State.
  • And he’s country to the core: “After his software company went public in the late 1990s, Burgum eschewed typical new car and new boat purchases favored by his colleagues and instead splurged on a Bobcat front-end loader for his Fargo-based ranch.”

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

SUNDAY BEST …

— National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on the U.S.’ role in Israel’s recovery of four hostages, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I'm not going to get into the specific operational or intelligence-related matters associated with that because we need to protect those. I can only just say that we have generally provided support to the IDF so that we can try to get all of the hostages home, including the American hostages who are still being held.”

On cease-fire negotiations, on ABC’s “This Week”: “We will also continue to reinforce the point that the reason this war is going on right now, that there is not a ceasefire in place right now, is not because of Israel. It's because of Hamas. And that point, we believe, needs to be reinforced by the entire international community.”

— Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on the Israeli hostage rescue, on “Fox News Sunday”: “What a wonderful day for the people of Israel to have four of these hostages rescued in a truly heroic, well-executed mission. … I’m very dismayed by sources from the progressive left here in America, to include The New York Times and Washington Post, who are somehow condemning Israel for saving four hostages at the cost of supposedly more than 200 Palestinians.”

— DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS on Biden’s border executive action, on “This Week”: “Our intent is to really change the risk calculus of individuals before they leave their countries of origin and incentivize them to use the lawful pathways that we have made available to them and keep them out of the hands of exploitative smugglers. It's early, the signs are positive. … We stand by the legality of what we have done. We stand by the value proposition.”

— South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM on Trump’s VP selection, on “State of the Union”: “I have been loyal to him since the very beginning, when he first started to run in 2016. He's told me his priority is picking a running mate that can govern on day one, that has been loyal to him, that can — has experience and run businesses, knows how to be a CEO, but also supports him and his policies. … All the polls tell him in these swing states that a woman on the ticket helps him win. The polls just say that.”

— Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.) on Biden’s mental acuity, on “Fox News Sunday”: “I have full confidence in the president. It is true that the president is old, but so is Donald Trump. It's a geriatric presidential race.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

The president and first lady JILL BIDEN this morning participated in a wreath laying at Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in Belleau, France. Later today, the Bidens will travel back to Wilmington, Delaware.

VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will host a reception in honor of the Ford’s Theatre Gala.

PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. THE SCUTTLE INSIDE SCOTUS: As the Supreme Court nears the end of its term, “internal fissures and external pressure have intensified at the court,” WSJ’s Jess Bravin reports. “In the midst of scrutiny and sagging approval ratings, the court is behind on its work. With less than a month remaining in the current term, the justices have yet to issue rulings in nearly half the cases on their docket. The court’s next decisions are expected Thursday.

“People familiar with the court’s workings said that when things are going well, decisions are produced at a regular clip, with the majority and dissenters keeping to internal deadlines for filing opinions, responding to each other’s positions, and moving on to the next case. By that measure, the augurs for this term are poor. The court heard only 61 cases in the 2023-24 term, close to a historic low.”

Among the cases: “Supreme Court to rule on pivotal abortion cases two years after overturning Roe v. Wade,” by NBC’s Lawrence Hurley: “In the most closely watched case, the court is weighing whether to impose new restrictions on the commonly used abortion pill mifepristone, including putting new curbs on access by mail. In the other case, which has received less attention but could have far-reaching implications of its own, the justices are considering whether a near-total abortion ban in Idaho conflicts with a federal law requiring emergency medical care for patients, including pregnant women.”

What else we’re waiting on: “The Supreme Court’s Notable Cases of the 2023-24 Term,” by WSJ’s Brent Kendall

2. MACE’S MOMENT: On Tuesday, Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) faces down a GOP primary challenger with the backing of former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY in a contest that will “test whether the 46-year-old’s colorful persona and unorthodox policy stances still resonate with Charleston, S.C.-area voters, after a bruising year in which she joined with GOP rebels to oust their leader while also grappling with personal and professional turmoil,” WSJ’s Natalie Andrews writes.

In typical Mace fashion, she is relishing the spotlight and the chance to prove her doubters wrong. “‘My entire life, I’ve never fit in. I’ve never tried to — actually, it’s just part of who I am. And I’m not afraid,’ said Mace, adding that she usually sits by herself in the House chamber. ‘It’s a very lonely experience where you’re an outspoken fiscal conservative up here, when you go against the grain,’ she said. ‘I am a caucus of one.’”

More trouble for Mace: “House Ethics Panel Looks Into Nancy Mace’s Use of Reimbursement Program,” by NYT’s Robert Jimison: “Following a complaint, lawmakers are being asked to look into whether Ms. Mace, Republican of South Carolina, overcharged the program thousands of dollars for expenses related to her Washington townhouse. According to the lawmaker familiar with the preliminary inquiry, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss it, the full committee will consider the details of the complaint over the coming days. The committee has not taken a vote to authorize an investigation.”

3. THE 2025 AGENDA, PART I: On the campaign trail, Trump has railed against vaccine mandates in many forms, donning a “new anti-vaccine persona” that could have “far-reaching consequences if he’s elected to a second stint as president with far-reaching administrative powers,” Megan Messerly writes. “Public health experts say a White House opposed to immunization mandates could potentially cause upticks in cases of measles, polio and other vaccine-preventable diseases, or hamper efforts to fight a future pandemic.”

What Trump could do: “The CDC could pare back the number of vaccines it recommends children receive or eliminate those recommendations entirely. The CDC could change the paperwork required to be shared with parents to make vaccines sound less safe than they are. Or the FDA could increase the number of years of safety testing required for new vaccines and impose other onerous requirements for vaccines to be approved in the U.S.”

4. THE 2025 AGENDA, PART II: Should Republicans regain control of Washington next year, they are eyeing much more than an extension of the Trump tax cuts from 2017, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. Lawmakers are looking to “lower rates even more for corporations, laying the early groundwork for a ferocious debate over taxes and spending next year and beyond,” WaPo’s Jacob Bogage reports. “GOP lawmakers and some of Trump’s economic advisers are considering more corporate tax breaks — which could expand the national debt by roughly $1 trillion over the next decade, according to researchers at Stanford University and MIT — arguing that they would improve the U.S.’s global competitiveness.”

5. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Biden Enlisted Qatar and Egypt to Pressure Hamas. It Backfired,” by WSJ’s Summer Said and Jared Malsin: “Qatar and Egypt have told Hamas leaders in recent days that they face possible arrest, freezing of their assets, sanctions and expulsion from their haven in Doha if they don’t agree to a cease-fire with Israel, officials familiar with the talks said.

“The threats were made at the behest of the Biden administration, which is searching for a way to cajole a U.S.-designated terrorist group into striking a deal that the president needs amid a political maelstrom over the war. It had the opposite of the desired effect. On Thursday, after the threats were made, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the group’s political bureau in exile in Qatar, said he wouldn’t agree on a deal that doesn’t meet the group’s conditions.”

Stalemate on a cease-fire: “Despite Biden’s personal and very public urging, his dispatch of senior administration officials to the region, the drafting of a new United Nations Security Council resolution and the marshaling of allies to join in a chorus of approval, neither Israel nor Hamas appear to have budged on their wide divergence over the proposed road map to permanently end the war in Gaza,” WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and Susannah George write.

Related reads: “Aid to Gaza restarted after repairs to U.S. military pier, Pentagon says,” by WaPo’s Dan Lamothe … “Protest Against Gaza War Draws Thousands to the White House,” by NYT’s Minho Kim

6. TINSELTOWN TO THE RESCUE: “Hollywood vets and Biden alums launch super PAC to shore up his youth vote problem,” by Elena Schneider: “The group, Won’t PAC Down, will raise and spend $20 million to $25 million, according to details shared exclusively with POLITICO. It’s also turning to Hollywood for help. Won’t PAC Down has hired millennial and Gen Z writers, directors and producers to help craft pro-Biden content that’s specifically engineered to sell an octogenarian candidate to typically disillusioned and hard-to-reach voters under 30.

“Those movie industry creatives, with credits from ‘Saturday Night Live’ to ‘Parks and Recreation’ to ‘Big Mouth,’ have been meeting monthly for the last half year in a rented, loft-style conference room in a downtown Los Angeles office building. There, they have pitched everything from 30- and 90-second influencer-style ads that could run on Instagram Reels to highly produced, scripted ads. The group’s first actual ads — which will only appear on social media and streaming platforms — are expected to drop in early July.”

7. EYE OF THE BEHOLDER: “Bipartisanship or Republican meddling? AIPAC is biggest source of GOP donations in Dem primaries,” by Jessica Piper and Hailey Fuchs: “The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has become a fundraising juggernaut in recent years, raising more money for candidates than any similar organization this cycle as part of its mission to back candidates who support Israel. It’s the rare political organization that still garners support from Republican and Democratic donors while supporting candidates from both parties. But its primary focus has been leveraging its weight in competitive Democratic primaries, spending millions to boost moderates over progressives who have been critical of Israel. … Nearly half of AIPAC donors to Democratic candidates this year have some recent history of giving to Republican campaigns or committees.”

8. THE K STREET FILES: Two female former executives at Subject Matter — SHANTI STANTON and AUDREY CHANG — were fired by the firm and subsequently accused the firm of sexism and creating a hostile work environment. Then, roughly two dozen ex-employees echoed many of their complaints. “Although the two sides settled before a lawsuit was filed, the situation has put a firm that helps big-name clients manage their reputations and advocate for their causes in the uncomfortable position of having to defend its own actions,” Daniel Lippman and Megan Wilson report. “The clash is a rare instance of female executives taking on the alleged misconduct of their former employers, and it could signal a cultural shift in the male-dominated world of Washington lobbying.”

9. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SANDY PENSLER’s Michigan Senate campaign is going up with a seven-figure ad buy knocking former Rep. MIKE ROGERS for his role in investigating the 2012 Benghazi attack. The ad features MARK GEIST, a retired Marine who survived Benghazi and wrote about the experience in his book, “13 Hours.” Geist in the ad says Rogers “didn’t want to hear the truth” about the attack, and “went along with HILLARY CLINTON,” adding: “I believe Mike Rogers wants Americans to forget what happened in Benghazi.” The Pensler campaign has made the Benghazi affair a recurring point in its attacks against Rogers, centering another ad last month on claims about the attack that were disputed by Rogers. Watch the ad

PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron feasted on a “dish of chicken, rice, artichoke and … slivers of carrots of various colors [that] had been curled into the likeness of a rose.”

Rudy Giuliani accused Biden of taking “God out of schools and government to establish loyalty to only him.”

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Ray Salazar of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark’s (D-Mass.) office … Joe Curl … Susannah Luthi … Marvin Kalb (94) … Margaret Talev … Liz Mair … Newsweek’s Ramsen Shamon … POLITICO’s Sarah Amin … Department of Energy’s Charisma Troiano … Yonathan Teclu of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) office … DSCC’s Laura Matthews … Jess O’Connell of NEWCO Strategies … DHS’ Jeff Solnet ... Delve’s Jeff Berkowitz … Dante Atkins … Candi Wolff of Citi … Google’s Ria Strasser-Galvis … Alexandra Toma … former Rep. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) … Ken Adelman … Zac Petkanas of Petkanas Strategies … Lori Lodes of Climate Power … Democracy Forward’s Skye Perryman … Parker Butler … Kelsey Glover … Matthew Martini … Daniel Rankin of Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs … Arkansas Lt. Gov Leslie Rutledge

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